NHL free Pick of the day by Ron for 21 January 2012

Nice to see everyone again. We are back in action for the big Saturday of games! Good night to take off last night as there was some unpredictable action, including a 5-4 SO come backer by Pittsburgh. As for our trends, we are coming straight off celebrating a Turkey. It was a last second shootout spin-o-rama, but we’ll take it. All we can say is, way to go three in a row!

Plenty of games to choose from. Because of the numerous match ups we’re going to put our record on the line and make two selections. One of the selections will also be a spread pick, and will have to cover to count the “W.”

First game on the map is the Detroit Red Wings versus the struggling Columbus Blue Jackets. What! The Red Wings again!? Yes, the Wings again. Will give a more behind the scenes reasoning this time for all skeptics. The Red Wings have been enforcing/trying out some system changes lately in their playbook. Most likely this was generated by the Babs himself (Mike Babcock). We actually can’t say for a fact that Babcock is the best fit for this Wings team. Personally I think Zetterberg needs to be dealt away. However there have been at least two changes made. There is a renewed commitment to keeping heads up, especially for defensemen starting the rush, for a more anticipated timing on moving the puck past the blue line. Second, there is an alternating of crowding the net and spreading out the Wings for rebound opportunities, instead of sticking to one method throughout the game.

Last and most noticeable, the defense is now taking wrist shots from the back end, instead of hard slappers. There have been more deflections and the puck stays in the opposition zone longer. The Wings defense has also been bar none as of late. They are at the Joe trying to increase the record to 16 in a row at home. When the Wings are home they play their best players for the fans. They should probably use the time to rest them and use it for some road wins, but that’s not the case. If this game were on the road I’d say Datsyuk would have the night off, he may even get it off at home for Columbus. Most likely he will be out there and as we said before he’s very due for a goal (plenty of recent assists), and only a few tacks off the league lead in scoring. Howard is also well rested coming of a perfect shootout finish and ready for the sub-par Jackets shooters.

Not only is Columbus absolutely pitiful but Detroit matches up well against them. I’ll hint everyone in on another secret. It’s become apparent that at this point in the season, for whatever reason, the streaky teams are fairing well against the struggling teams. This has started very recently.

To say the Wings are favorited heavily in this one is a bit of an understatement. They are suggested at a -1.5 goals spread. They must win and cover here for us to put it down as a win.

For our second game we have the Florida Panthers versus the Winnipeg Jets. I should say that I’ve predicted the restless teams from last night’s games will have an overall winning record tonight. However, one of the teams that won’t benefit from the back to back affair are the Florida Panthers. Why? Let’s say a home loss followed by a next day road win is exactly at fifty percent. It has proven easier coming off a home win to an immediate road game. Two road wins are tough back to back at below 50%, but that’s Tampa’s problem not ours. The hardest ordeal then is the road loss followed by a next day road game. It’s worth mentioning here that Montreal may fair differently because of the nature of their loss in a shootout. Enough of the tangent and back on track…Florida gets beat by a very strong home team in Chicago, who I see as currently heating up for a streak. They now go on to play an equally strong home team in Winnipeg, having no time to figure out how to score more than one goal.

Winnipeg is also more offensive than Chicago, and will be looking to open up the game and challenge Florida’s tired legs from the get go. We take Winnipeg ML and -.5 in regulation as the smaller side play.
To review we aren’t changing up much, sticking with the home team advantage. We are selecting a strong home team in Winnipeg over the ill rested Panthers. We select the Red Wings for the second time in a row as the strongest home team, after catching them sneaking out a road win. Remember they must win by two to count, considering the odds and the Jackets as a terrible opponent. A fun night of a hockey is ahead!

The Bet of the day by Ron: NHL Pick for 16 January

Introducing new series: “The Bet Of The Day” by NHL expert Ron.

Ron is one of the world best NHL private cappers. He is using his own system which may agree or disagree with zcode but in a long term you will find a lot of value in his picks that he is selling for big $$ for private clients. We agreed on the 10 day trial to let my members of the community to enjoy his advice. You can treat Ron’s picks on the separate bankroll as 1 unit per pick.

NHL Tonight begins in Canada:

To premier this segment of game analysis let’s stray from the tightest of games and look at the Winnipeg Jets versus the Ottawa Senators. From here on we’ll expect to pin the closer games to the boards. One of the goals here will be to narrow down and single out justifications. Though it doesn’t show in the record books, the point of analysis has always been finding out “how” and “why”. And so we begin with Ottawa to give ourselves the best chance of a 1-0 record, I.e., our first justification.

It’s no secret that lately Ottawa has been on a tear. At first we might’ve attributed all success to a hot offense. We saw 6-4 over the Flyers and 5-1 over the Penguins. Both Pennsylvania teams struggling as well. But the ultimate validation came in a 3-0 victory over the league’s best Rangers at their own MSG. Ottawa followed it up with a 3-2 win in Montreal, who snapped back with an easy win at home. Montreal held the Rangers to a lone goal last night.

Meanwhile the Winnipeg Jets have lost three in a row. They also have to face the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday. They will return home on Thursday looking for a repeat win against Buffalo. The Jets have many talented scorers, but they haven’t had the time to work out these three losses as a team. They won’t be ready for Ottawa who will be hungry for a season high five game winning streak.

We might allow justifying the difficulty of extending from four wins in a row to five with the fact Ottawa is at home (though both teams are Canadian). The streak will have to end eventually, but we know Ottawa is coming off the road as the hottest team in Hockey.

We might attribute the choice here to a “hot versus cold” effect. In this case it may be more correct to say “hottest versus coldest.” Look for more of these justifications going forward. Not to spoil anything but I think all you hockey fanatics out there will enjoy the “hunger theory,” of game analysis. It’s sure to show up sooner or later.

Suggestion for playing this game is Ottawa ML, -1, and -1.5 in a 3-3-1 ratio, respectively.

Only two meetings this year will also favor Ottawa:
In September Winnipeg defeated Ottawa 3-1
Last meeting Ottawa won 6-4

Starting fresh in 2012? NHL Hockey Picks and Predictions for Thursday, January 5th

NHL Hockey Picks and Predictions for Thursday, January 5th: Chicago Blackhawks at Philadelphia Flyers, Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers at New York Rangers, Flames at Bruins, Oilers at Blues, Coyotes at Kings, Blue Jackets at Sharks

Starting fresh in 2012?

Magic score 3-7 ? I was thinking a lot why road dogs (Jets and Tampa) got blown away 2 times in a row especially with such a big and similar score ? What’s different about those games?

Here is what was different. In both cases it was
1) FIRST GAME in 2012 for a home team
2) Home team stuck in a long dead losing streak and needed to break-through.

Why did they win? The motivation to start the fresh 2012 with a win at home in front of supporting fans was overwhelming. Lesson for future: Don’t bet against home team on the first games in 2013. These things can really make a difference.

What about Hawks today?
1) It’s not a first game in 2012 for any of the teams
2) Flyers don’t have a long losing streak.

Why Hawks can win today?
1. Emery is much better goalie than both Flyers goalies all together especially if struggling Bryzgalov takes the net after Bobrovsky took the Winter Classic
2. Jaromir Jagr is injured.

Why Flyers can win today?
1. They are a great team and they don’t usually get into long losing streaks
2. They are playing home and Hawks are unstable and frustrated (could not win over Oilers in the last game)

Idea: go Chicago ML, Chicago-1 Spread and CHI Team Total Over 2.5