The Bet of the day by Ron: NHL Pick for 17 January

NHL Spotlight

To recap: The ultimate streak reversal has been completed. The red hot Ottawa Senators were impeached at home by the struggling Jets. On the bright side, we get an example of how one game can prove current streaks absolutely meaningless. Also, what better motivation to move on and break down the league than starting 0-1 with a shutout! The Detroit Red Wings highlighted the night with their record setting 14th home win in a row at the Joe Louis Arena.

For tonight’s games we look at the televised match up Nashville Predators versus the New York Rangers at MSG.

It’s no secret that hockey fans everywhere are holding their breath for this Ranger team to fall apart. Currently #1 in the league and the best they’ve been this deep in the season in recent memory. They are still the slightly less skilled but terribly hard working Ranger team as old, with a Coach that makes Bobby Knight’s temperament on par with Gandhi. Questions in the air include, “will the Rangers fall as hard as they have risen?” Some have them going deep in the playoffs for a run at Lord Stanley’s cup. But most of us are quietly waiting for the recent cold streak outside to match the blue shirts inside. We don’t wish it but sense it coming all at once. The fact is the Rangers know all of this and are doing their best to keep it out of present mind. While they will be taking things one game at a time as all teams (all pro athletes for that matter) do, I still don’t see a better candidate for a snap-back win at home following a tough loss, this one 4-1 in Montreal. The Rangers have yet to shy away from the spotlight throughout the season. There’s nothing to hint they won’t be showing us again tonight they aren’t going away just yet.

Nashville arrives in the big apple riding a 5 game win streak. A meaningful game for them as they trail Detroit by three in the Central division. More importantly Nashville and Detroit both have a chance to pick up points on the division leading Hawks and Blues who have the night off. Nashville had a not such a breeze of a win over the Islanders last night while the Rangers were watching it on television. The Isles fought hard at home for two periods after a poor start.

It’s exciting to have a chance and beating a team on a streak for some revenge. We have to expect the Rangers to bring more to this game to be the first team to pass sixty points. Currently five teams are a win away from passing the mark, two of them tied with NY. We won’t attribute the “hunger theory” just yet, and the “rest theory” is not in our playbook. Let’s go with the “trend-setter theory” as the Rangers look to one-up the league in points tonight.

Suggested Play -
Rangers in Regulation -.5

The Flames vs Preds: The game of the year?

The Flames vs Preds: The game of the year?

Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators (NHL) Jan. 1th, 2012 6:00 PM EST

Only 1 game today and my wife is still sleeping so let me write a detailed opinion here to reveal my thinking process and philosophy.

Who else wakes up at 8 a.m on 1st January to analyse games and prepare predictions?

What I love about Zcode is that it is not a black box that throws out some numbers you can’t understand. It’s a fully transparent system that gives us a clear indication on what’s going on in a simple form of Statuses and percentages anyone can understand. Just by looking at the predictions and knowing nothing about hockey you can already pick the winner better than most “nhl experts” out there :) Of course we get our upsets and nothing is a “sure-win” but in a long run the results are coming fine.

Okay, enough lyrics lets get back to the action. The prediction for Preds :)

First I check the background:  Preds are coming out of two hard earned shootout wins while Calgary is playing really well lately but lost 2 times in a row.. The Preds are hot but they lack offense. They scored only 5 goals in the last 3 games. While Calgari has no problem scoring but lacks the defense. They blew 3-goal lead against Ottawa and “underestimated” Islanders.

What Zcode predicts: The system thinks it is a 3 star home favorite, obviously the status differential is not enough to give it more stars though the power rank differential is pretty high (6 and 20) and with a home field advantage the Preds can scratch some goals for a one more 2-1SO victory here over the Flames who have been drinking whole night :) far away from their wives and families.

What does “incredible Oscilator thinks”?  I LOVE our oscillator. It’s never good to base signals on it alone but in combination with Zcode statuses it’s really powerful.
http://zcodesystem.com/nhl_oscillator/?team1=Calgary&team2=Nashville

Oscillator agrees here – seems like the Preds are testing resistance and Calgari won’t hurt to lose one more time

Now lets check the goalies: Miikka Kiprusoff is Probable for CAL. He is solid with 2.40 GAA and .918 SV. If you have no clue what that means the smaller number goals you allow the better for you and your team :)   Pekka Rinne is probable for Preds. He is super solid as well 2.58 and .920  I see no goalie edge here and a possible low scoring tight game. Kiprusoff is 1-2-0 with a 1.36 goals-against average versus Nashville this season, and stopped 26 shots in a 1-0 home win over the Predators on Nov. 29.

Possible scenarios:
Preds win 2-1SO. Most likely a tight low scoring win.
Calgari wins 4-1. If Calgari can break through the defense and score more than 3 the Preds have no chance, they cant score. The only way they can win is to keep it low.
Or maybe that is all BS and the Preds will win 6-5 again ?

Ideas to bet: Honestly this game has no value and I used it only because there are no other games tonight and I wanted to show you how I am analysing games. However if you got a gun on your head and must be or die here then go Calgari+1 or PredsML small bet + Under 5.5. If you expect Preds to win you can add Calgari Team Total under 2.5 then.

Agree, disagree?