A 1-2 weekend brings our YTD to 11-4. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 6. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Wednesday (10/11) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.
PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA
The Eagles have won three straight games and the betting public has taken notice.
While the Eagles are hot, Carolina has won two games in a row on the road, including at New England. Cam Newton has bounced back from a slow start and, now back at home, this is a game the Panthers have to win. Let’s take Carolina -3 (5Dimes)
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS
Neither team has looked particularly good but the public has jumped on the Lions.
Detroit is struggling with injuries as Haloti Ngata is out for the season and Matthew Stafford is going to play through a hamstring and ankle issue. With New Orleans coming off a bye week, the Saints should be fresh and ready to throw the ball against 4th worst passing defense in the league. Let’s take New Orleans -5.5 (5Dimes)
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY
Kansas City is the only undefeated team left and the public is still riding that train.
The Chiefs looked great winning at Houston while Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 interceptions during arguably the worst game of his career. This is a great spot to buy low and catch a hungry Steelers team looking to bounce back. Let’s take Pittsburgh +5 (BetOnline)
Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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