Week 2 was another winning week for us at 2-1 ATS and improves our YTD to 4-2. Let’s see if we can keep it going with a few potential plays for Week 3. The main strategy I want to implement is fading the public. Books are always looking to exploit public perception so hopefully we can find a few winners by fading the public in a few heavily public-bet games. Obviously, this is written on Tuesday (9/19) so always keep an eye on the changing lines and percentages.
DENVER @ BUFFALO
Denver put on an impressive display while dismantling the Cowboys last week and the public will be expecting similar results against a mediocre Bills team. Taking a look at ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool we can get an early breakdown:
This is Denver’s first road game and they have to travel across the country while facing a Buffalo team that will be looking to bounce back at home. Let’s take Buffalo +3 (Bookmaker)
PITTSBURGH @ CHICAGO
The Steelers are the better team and the public has reacted:
But the Bears are desperate for their first win of the season and, playing at home, will make a huge effort to get a win. And all we need is a loss within 8.5 points so let’s take Chicago +8.5 (5Dimes).
OAKLAND @ WASHINGTON
Oakland, and Marshawn Lynch’s dancing, embarrassed the Jets last week and the public loved it.
This is the late Sunday night game and I expect a big effort from Washington with all eyes on them. This is another chance for us to catch a home underdog in a good spot. Let’s take Washington +3 (BetOnline)
Like I mentioned, we have a few days until these games take place with lots of wagering in between so keeping an eye on the lines and percentages throughout the week is important. Fading the public is very successful when the public side is 80%+ so keep that in mind as the week progresses and the betting volume grows.
Like all sports investing, this strategy is most effective over the course of an entire season. Use consistent money management and stick to the plan in order to maximize profit. As always, using ZCode’s Line Reversals Tool is a great way to stay on top of all the action. You can find the tool HERE
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