In a season that continues to be difficult to predict, here are some of the top match ups for week six. Note that all information is for games played through Monday night’s Washington-New Orleans game.
Pittsburgh Steelers versus Cincinnati Bengals
In this classic AFC North battle, the 2-2-1 Steelers take on the 4-1 Bengals. Cincinnati comes in a 2.5 point favorite and hold a +27 to +14 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Similarly, the Bengals are “burning hot” versus “ice cold up” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Steelers won both meetings a year ago between the teams. The trend will shift towards Cincinnati, who are clearly the better team at this stage of the season. Cincinnati will win and cover.
Carolina Panthers versus Washington Redskins
Carolina is coming off a last second win against the Giants, while the Redskins were crushed in New Orleans against the Saints on Monday night. Carolina holds a +22 to +14 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Carolina is the third most stable team in the league, while the Redskins are the six most unstable. The Panthers are “burning hot” at the moment, while Washington is “ice cold down”. I don’t see things changing this weekend. Although Washington is a two point favorite at home, the Panthers should win this outright.
Los Angeles Rams versus Denver Broncos
The Rams are the hottest team in the NFC and perhaps the NFL, starting at 5-0. They enter a seven point favorite against the Broncos, who are 2-3, having lost their last three games. The Rams are the 10th most stable team in the league, meaning they are a very good bet to win when favorites. They hold a large +31 to +18 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. There’s little to make me believe the Broncos have a chance, even playing at home. It’s possible the Broncos can cover, but unlikely and the Rams clearly will win the game.
Jacksonville Jaguars versus Dallas Cowboys
The Jaguars are tied with the Titans in the AFC South and the Cowboys are battling in a tight and somewhat surprisingly weak NFC East. Jacksonville comes in with an “average” status, while the Cowboys are “ice cold down”. There is a decided +24 to + 10 advantage for the Jaguars on the Power Ranking Indicator and Jacksonville is one of the most stable teams in the NFL. This is all the more reason to pick the Jaguars, who are three point road favorites. Dallas will continue to slide and the Jaguars will win and cover.
Baltimore Ravens versus Tennessee Titans
The Ravens enter a three point favorite, despite suffering a loss to the Browns in overtime on Sunday. The Titans are also coming off a loss but are 2-0 at home this season. Last season the Titans beat the Ravens as a home favorite. The sixth most unstable team in the league according to the Team Volatility Oscillator, the favorite/underdog status doesn’t mean much when looking at betting for or against the Titans. Tennessee holds a narrow +28 to +26 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. In what is somewhat of a toss up game, I lean towards the Titans holding home field advantage.
Chicago Bears versus Miami Dolphins
Both teams have performed better than expected. The Bears are 3-1 and tops of the NFC North, while the Dolphins are hanging tough in the AFC East at 3-2. The Bears are three-point road favorites and have the narrowest +24 to +23 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. The most stable team in the NFL, the Dolphins have been winning as favorites and losing as underdogs more consistently than any team. I think this week that trend is reversed. The Bears lost their only game on the road and the Dolphins are 2-0 at home. In a slight upset, the Dolphins take care of the Bears.
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