There is just one week to go in the Major League Baseball regular season and the MLB playoffs begin on October 3rd. It’s just about time for the postseason to start and a made dash for the World Series trophy.
A few weeks ago, we wrote about the Cleveland Indians and why bettors should wager on the Tribe to win the World Series. This time, let’s look at the MLB playoffs and see if the Indians are still a team that, should not only be bet on, but is being undervalued by bookies.
Cleveland Indians +325
After a strong August and September, the Indians are now even with the Los Angeles Dodgers at +325 to win the World Series. That is a huge difference from early September when the Tribe was +650. Cleveland’s 22 game win streak changed many bookies’ minds, and the Indians’ odds were quickly changed just as the Dodgers hit a losing streak that saw them lose 16 of 17 games.
Since LA ended its losing streak, the Dodgers have been up and down. Cleveland has been far more solid and history is on the Tribe’s side. Although many pundits will claim losing ahead of the playoffs is good for the Dodgers, that statement is not only stupid, but false.
Importance of winning in September
Only one World Series winner in the last 10 years had a .500 or below win percentage in September. Kansas City won the 2015 World Series with a 39.3% win rate during the final full month of the season. No other team had a win rate below 52% during the last decade during September. Cleveland’s current win percentage as of September 26 is 91.6% for the final month. The Dodgers’ win percentage in September? As of September 26, the Dodgers have won just 36% of their games.
How do other MLB World Series contenders stack up in September win percentage? (As of September 26)
Washington Nationals: 58.3%
Chicago Cubs: 65.2%
Houston Astros: 69.5%
Boston Red Sox: 68.1%
Are Indians now the favorites?
A few weeks ago, we said the Indians should be bet on and, in our humble opinion, were the favorites to win the World Series. Bookmakers have now agreed, as they slashed Cleveland’s odds greatly. Baseball statisticians and number crunchers are still behind the Tribe. Cleveland is currently 29% likely to win the World Series. That’s the highest figure from all teams in line to make the postseason. The Dodgers are 15% likely to win the World Series.
ZCode System’s power rankings have the Indians as No. 1. The Dodgers do sit second with the Cubs third.
Compared to our previous look at the World Series, where the ZCode System playoff simulator predicted the Indians to win the World Series, the playoff simulator is now predicting the LA Dodgers to win it all. In fact, the playoff simulator predicts the Indians will be beaten by the Twins in five games. That result is based on an ‘average’ level of upsets.
If we modify the level of upset to ‘low’, however, the Indians are predicted to win the World Series by the ZCode System playoff simulator.
Once more, if we ramp the playoff simulator up to the ‘high’ upset level, it gives us a third prediction. This time it’s the Nationals who will win.
Cleveland’s September has been too strong to go unnoticed. The Tribe should still be seen as favorites to win it all this fall and bettors can still win by wagering on the Indians. But they better do it now.
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