The Major League Baseball season has reached the quarter point. Numerous tight races are developing. Here’s what’s in store for the weekend of May 18 – 20.
Los Angles Dodgers versus Washington Nationals
The Dodgers continue to struggle to stay out of the basement in the NL West, while the Nationals are battling the Phillies and Braves for honors in the NL East. On opposite ends of the spectrum, Washington is +23 on the Power Ranking Indicator, while Los Angeles is +2. Furthermore, the Nationals are “burning hot” versus “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator. On Friday, Ross Stripling goes for the Dodgers versus Tanner Roark, who has a +175 to -697 advantage on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Neither Rich Hill nor Stephen Strasburg have been great bets in Saturday’s match up. Sunday’s game is a good one to hold your bet, as Alex Wood and Jeremy Hellickson have been been poor bets, at -1865 to -753, respectively. The Nationals have the advantage at home and playing much better than the Dodgers. I expect two of three from Washington in this series.
Arizona Diamondbacks versus New York Mets
Arizona enters in first in the NL West, but have lost six straight (through May 14). This contributes to their “dead” status on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Mets are struggling to stay above .500 and are “ice cold up”. The Diamondbacks hold a +19 to +13 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator and hold an overall advantage in terms of pitcher profit this weekend. Zack Godley goes for the Diamondbacks on Friday and is +1151 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator versus Steven Matz, who has been a terrible bet at -707. The Mets best chance to salvage a game this weekend may be Saturday, as Jacob deGrom has an edge of Parick Corbin. The series finale features Zack Greinke, who has been a dream bet at +2565 versus Noah Syndergaard at +38. The Diamondbacks will break out of their funk and take two of three this weekend.
New York Yankees versus Kansas City Royals
The match up appears to be very one-sided, as the Yankees hold the best record in baseball, while the Royals are second from the bottom. New York holds a huge +29 to +1 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and are first in Team Volatility. Interestingly enough, the Royals have the edge in two of three games in terms of the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Jacob Junis is at +489 compared to -1620 for Sonny Gray in Friday’s match up. While both Domingo German and Danny Duffy have been good bets, Duffy is +700 over German on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. On Sunday, Luis Severino takes the ball for the Yankees versus Erik Skoglund for the Royals. Both are on the red in terms of profit, however the edge goes to the Yankees. New York has been too good to lose this series.
Philadelphia Phillies versus St. Louis Cardinals
The Phillies continue to surprise, staying near the top of the NL East, while the Cardinals are in a tight, four-way battle in the NL Central. Philadelphia has a two-point edge on the Power Ranking Indicator and “average” to “average down” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Phillies are 7-3 over their last ten, while the Cardinals are 5-5 during that stretch. Friday’s game features Michael Wacha for the Cardinals versus Zach Eflin for the Phillies, Wacha holds a +543 to -163 advantage on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Aaron Nola takes the ball for the Phillies on Saturday and he’s been one of the best in the league this season. Surprisingly he is in the red in terms of pitcher profit, but still has the advantage over John Grant, on the mound for St. Louis. The Cardinals are undecided for Sunday’s game, while Nick Pivetta and his solid +625 pitcher profit number goes for the Phillies. Normally, the Cardinals at home would be a near lock for a series win. However, the Phillies have been good and look for them to sneak away with a two to one series win.
Detroit Tigers versus Seattle Mariners
Despite being below .500, the Tigers are only a game out in the AL Central. The Mariners stay above .500 and are keeping pace in the AL West. The Tigers are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator versus “average down” for Seattle. However, Seattle still holds a +18 to +10 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Somewhat of a surprise, all scheduled starters for the Tigers have been more profitable than Seattle’s schedule starters. The match ups are Michael Fulmer versus Felix Hernandez on Friday, Mike Fiers versus James Paxton on Saturday and Francisco Liriano verse Wade LeBlanc on Sunday. Seattle in only 8-8 at home and the recent upswing for the Tigers leans my pick for a two to one weekend series win.
Colorado Rockies versus San Francisco Giants
In this NL West battle, the Rockies and Giants try to keep pace with the Diamondbacks. The Rockies are +15 on the Power Ranking Indicator versus +5 for the Giants. Neither team has been on fire lately, as Colorado is “ice cold down” and San Francisco is “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The pitching match ups looks good for those betting on the Giants. Every scheduled starter for the Giants this weekend has the edge in terms of profit. The Rockies best chance for a win is on Friday,as Kyle Freeland has been a solid bet at +670. Saturday’s game has the widest margin in terms of pitcher profit, as Chris Stratton has been a very good bet at +887 versus Jon Gray at -484. Neither Tyler Anderson for the Rockies nor Ty Blach for the Giants have been good bets in Sunday’s finale. Look for the Giants to take advantage of home field and win two of three to close the gap in the division.
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