The MLB season has reached the one-third mark and the divisional races are heating up. As we head into the month before the All-Star break, here are some intriguing match ups for June 1 – 3.
Note that all information is for games played through May 28.
New York Yankees versus Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees are battling the Red Sox for top spot in the AL East, while the Orioles are bringing up the rear in the division. The Yankees are a +26 to 0 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and “average” to “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator. Baltimore is seventh most stable team according to the Team Volatility Oscillator.
On the mound, the Yankees have the advantage in two of three games in terms of the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. In Friday’s game, Masahiro Tanaka is at +1969 terms of profit versus -1826 for Kevin Gausman. Baltimore’s best chance to avoid a sweep could be Saturday with Alex Cobb holding a profit edge over Domingo German. While both CC Sabathia and Dylan Bundy have been solid bets, the advantage goes to the Yankees. Look for the Yankees to take two of three this weekend.
Washington Nationals versus Atlanta Braves
Washington is making a strong push in the NL East, while the Braves try to hold off challengers in the division. The Nationals have a +25 to +21 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Furthermore, they are “burning hot” versus “ice cold up” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Braves are third least stable team in the league, so their favorite/underdog status should have little bearing on whether or not to bet on them.
The pitching match ups feature a slew of unprofitable arms, with only Gio Gonzales and Brandon McCarthy in the green for Saturday’s game. Friday’s match up of Stephen Strasburg versus Mike Foltynewicz is one of two pitchers in the red. The same goes for Sunday, however Annibal Sanchez is an extremely poor bet at -2533 versus Jeremy Hellickson. I see the Nationals continuing their bolt towards the top, winning two of three.
Boston Red Sox versus Houston Astros
Both team enter holding slim leads in their respective divisions. Boston holds a +27 to +24 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator, while both teams are “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator. Both teams have been very consistent winner when favorites and losers as underdogs, both teams tie for the most stable teams.
In terms of the pitching match ups, each game has a decided favorite in terms of the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Chris Sale has been a surprisingly poor bet at -254 versus +749 for Gerrit Cole. Equally or even more surprising the the extremely poor bet that Justin Verlander has been at -1193. This gives an edge to David Price and the Red Sox. In the finale, Rick Porcello has a +800 pitcher profit edge of Charlie Morton, although bot are in the green. This one is difficult to call. Neither team will sweep, but a toss-up as to which wins the series.
Texas Rangers versus Los Angeles Angels
Texas is looking far upwards to the rest of the pack in the AL West, while the Angels are holding the third position. Both teams are under .500 over their last ten. The Rangers are “average” versus “average down” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Angels have a huge +19 to +6 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Neither team places in the top ten or bottom team on the Team Volatility Oscillator.
The Angels have Garrett Richards on the mound versus Cole Hamels on Friday. Both are in the green in terms of profit, however Hamels holds a decided +1174 to +112 advantage. Los Angeles is undecided for the final two games. Doug Fister has been a relatively poor bed and he is scheduled to start for the Rangers on Saturday. Bartolo Colon has been a relatively surprising excellent bet at +1851 and he takes the ball in the finale. The Rangers, who have been better on the road than at home, will take two of three in the series.
Tampa Bay Rays versus Seattle Mariners
Seattle comes in having won nine of their last ten, while the Rays have gone 6-4 over that period. Both teams are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator and the Mariners have a +28 to +15 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Seattle has pulled to within a game of the Astros in the AL West.
Tampa Bay is undecided for Friday’s pitching match up, and the weekend starters Chris Archer (-2121) and Blake Snell (-741) are both terrible bets in terms of profit. Mike Leake is far in the red at -1137, giving an edge to Tampa Bay on Friday. However, the Mariners should take the final two with Marco Gonzales and Felix Hernandez on the hill.
Philadelphia Phillies versus San Francisco Giants
Despite playing sub .500 ball over the last ten, the Phillies are hanging tough in the NL East. The Giants have been scuffling, winners of just three of their last ten. They are 10th most unstable team and “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Phillies are “average down” and hold a +23 to +10 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator.
Friday’s schedules starters Nick Pivetta and Chris Stratton have been very good bets on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator, while Saturday’s starters Vince Velasquez and Ty Blach are both in the red. Likely heading into Sunday’s game having split the first two games, the Phillies have the edge with Jake Arrieta versus Andrew Suarez. Arrieta is at +888 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator compared to -475 for Suarez. The Phillies should take two of three to keep pace in the NL East.
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