There has been plenty of action nearly a month into the MLB season. Here’s some of the top match ups closing out the month of April.
Note that all values from the oscillators are for games played through Tuesday, April 24.
Atlanta Braves versus Philadelphia Phillies
The Braves and Phillies have both been holding their own in the National League East. Philadelphia enters with a +27 to +24 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and “burning hot” versus “average up” on the Team Strength Oscillator. The Braves have the advantage in the pitching match ups according to the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. On Friday, Julio Teheran is +226 profit versus Aaron Nola at -312. The Phillies have a big edge on Saturday with Nick Pivetta (+734) versus Mike Foltynewicz (-242). The Braves have an equally big advantage on Sunday with Brandon McCarthy (+391) versus Vince Velasquez (-594). The Phillies have been playing better overall this season, so despite the advantages previously mentioned on the mound for the Braves, the Phillies should take two of three.
Detroit Tigers versus Baltimore Orioles
The Tigers come in around the .500 mark and +10 on the Power Ranking Indicator. They are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator. On the flip side, the Orioles have one of the worst records in baseball, +3 on the Power Ranking Indicator and “dead” status. They are also fourth in Team Volatility, which is more reason to bet the Tigers, who are likely to be road favorites. Detroit also has edge in every pitching match up in terms of profit. Mike Fiers is a mediocre bet at +3, but Andrew Cashner is at -482 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Neither Francisco Liriano nor Kevin Gausman have been a good bet, but Liriano is 1433 more profitable than Gausman. Sunday’s match up appears to be the most competitive with Jordan Zimmerman (+1085) versus Alex Cobb (+722). The Tigers could sweep the series, but I believe the Orioles can sneak out a win.
New York Yankees versus Los Angeles Angels
The Angels are battling the Astros for tops in the AL West ,while the Yankees are in the middle of the back in the AL East. New York has a +21 to +17 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator despite a worse overall record. This is in large part due to a 7-3 run over the last ten versus 5-5 for the Angels. The edge in Friday’s match up in terms of the Pitcher Profit Oscillator goes to Andrew Heaney of the Angels over Luis Severino, however both are in the red. Masahiro Tanaka goes for the Yankees on Saturday and has been an excellent bet at +1586. Garrett Richards takes the ball for the Angels and is a solid +357 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. The Angels are undecided on Sunday, while the Yankees sent veteran CC Sabathia to the hill, with a +167 profit. The Yankees will continue their hot play and win two of three on the road.
Arizona Diamondbacks versus Washington Nationals
The Diamondbacks hold the best record in the National League and are +26 on the Power Ranking Indicator. They take on the Nationals, who are off to a slow start, playing sub-.500 ball. They are +11 on the Power Ranking Indicator and “average down” status. The pitching match ups favor Arizona as well in terms of profit. On Friday, Zach Godley is at +1108 versus Stephen Strasburg, who has been in the red. Saturday, the Diamondbacks will send Patrick Corbin to the mound versus Jeremy Hellickson. Corbin has been a solid profitable bet, while Hellickson has been mired deep in the red. Sunday appears to be the Nationals best chance to win, as Gio Gonzalez goes against Robbie Ray, who is at -1413 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Arizona will give the Nationals a hard time this weekend, taking two of three.
Texas Rangers versus Toronto Blue Jays
Texas is struggling at the bottom of the American League West, while the Blue Jays are pushing the Red Sox for tops in the American League East. Not a surprise, the Blue Jays have a huge +24 to +6 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. Texas is “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while Toronto is tied for eighth in Team Volatility. However, the Rangers have the edge in terms of pitcher profit on Friday and Saturday. Mike Minor has a nearly 550 edge over Marcus Stroman, while Martin Perez is almost 900 higher than Jaime Garcia. It must be noted that none of the four pitchers are in the green in terms of profit. They Rangers are undecided for Sunday, while JA Happ goes for the Blue Jays. It’s difficult to envision the Rangers taking more than one game, despite stronger pitcher profit numbers. Go with the Blue Jays at home to win two.
New York Mets versus San Diego Padres
The Padres are just 9-15 on the season, but have been a respectable 5-5 over the last ten. The Mets continue to be the front runners in the NL East, but are also 5-5 over the last ten. They hold a large +26 to +3 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator and “average” versus “dead” on the Team Strength Oscillator. San Diego’s scheduled starers Clayton Richard, Joey Lucchesi and Byran Mitchell are all in the red on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. On the flip side, Jacob deGrom has been an extremely profitable bet and Zach Wheeler is also in the green. The Mets should win two and perhaps sweep the series.
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