MLB Picks: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
It’s always nice when the night games haven’t started and you’re already up money on the day, but the early games today gave us a victory behind Max Scherzer and we’re playing with a little bit of house money. I think the Pittsburgh Pirates have a ton of value in an ABC progression against the Cincinnati Reds, and we’re on them here.
The Pirates have their three best pitchers lined up for this one and the Reds traded away the only guy in the rotation that was worth fearing. Pittsburgh is the better team across the board, and they’ve been on fire since a slow start to the year. I think they’re a playoff team, and even on the road I think there’s some value here.
The line has moved in our favor if you got in early, showing some fear from Las Vegas in how this one is shaping up. In an effort the push money away from the road favorites, the line has climbed to -150 from a much more favorable line this morning.
AJ Burnett is solid, but our C Bet is protected by the ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates if a sweep is in the works. I trust all three arms, and even though the computer is not on our side here, I think we can move forward. All in all, it fits the system despite being on the road and not having Z-Code support, but we temper our expectations as a result.
The computer is confident in the over, however, with 66% chance of going over 8.5
Pirates 6 – Reds 5
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