Predictions for MLB games June 2 – June 4
Since starting pitching is many times the key in a win or loss, the predictions are based mainly on this matchup. If this matchup is neraly even, then I use overall team offense to influence the final decision.
St. Louis Cardianals vs. Chicago Cubs
First game features Lance Lynn for the Cardinals against Jonn Lackey for the Cubs. Lynn is 4-3 with a 2.93 ERA. He’s been up and down over the past four starts, going 0-2 in that stretch. Lackeyis 4-5 with a 5.18 ERA and has allowed 11 runs in the last 15 1/3 innings. Lynn shows a positive profit using the Pitcher Profit Oscillator tool, while Lackey is showing a slight loss. The edge goes to the Cardinals.
In Saturday’s game, Mike Leake takes the ball for the Cardinals, while John Lester is on the mound for the Cubs. Both have good overall numbers, Leake is 5-3 with a 2.24 ERA while Lester is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA but has a 2.78 ERA over the last 32 1/3 innings. According to the Pitcher Profit Oscillator toll, both are surprising high in the negtative, with Leake coming in at -1372 and Lester at -898. Although neither seem to be a great bet, the Cubs have scored more runs this season, giving them the slight edge.
In Sunday’s finale, Michael Wacha goes for the Cardinals and Kyle Hendricks is on the hill for the Cubs. Wacha has a 3.99 ERA but has allowed 9 earned runs over the last 7 innings. Hendricks allowed 5 earned runs in 5 in his last start, but has a 2.87 ERA over his last 41 2/3 innings.The pretty clear advantage using the Profit Oscillator tool goes to Hendricks, who is at +895, the best it’s been all season, while Wacha is at +372, down from +672 on May 7. Give the series finale to the Cubs which means is a great value to do ABC progression on CUBS.
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers
Friday’s game features Dallas Keuchel for the Astros versus Yu Darvish for the Rangers. This one heavily favors the Astros, as Keuchel has dominated with a 8-0 record and a 1.81 ERA. Darvis has been steady, but not spectacular. The matchup is more one-sided when using the Pitcher Profit Osciallator tool, showing Keuchel at +1326, while betting on Darvish is likely to lose you money at -327. Game one prediction is for the Astros.
The middle game of the series has Lance McCullers Jr for the Astros against Andrew Cashner for the Rangers. McCullers has been pitching extremely well of late, allowing just 2 earned runs over the last 23 innings and is 6-1 with a 2.48 ERA for the season. Cashner, like Darvish, has been steady, allowing 10 earned runs over the last 31 innings pitched. Looking at the profit expected with a bet, McCullers is in the positive and at +237 is the highest he’s been all season. Cashner, on the other hand, has been up and down and a bet on him is likely to lose money. He’s at -399, so the pick goes to the Astros.
Sunday’s series finale features Brad Peacock for the Astros versus Martin Perez for the Rangers. Peacock has been used mostly as a reliever and has thrown only 8 1/3 innings combined in two starts. Perez has been inconsistent, allowing 12 earned runs over the last 24 1/3 innings. Both pitchers have a very high negative profit number using the Osciallator, Perez being slightly better. Looking at the two offenses, the Astros average 5.4 runs per game, while the Rangers average 4.8 runs per game. The slight edge offensively goes to the Astros. That makes for a very even matchup. Give this one to the Rangers, given they are the home team and likely playing with more incentive to avoid a weekend sweep.
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